“Promises made, promises kept” was a central theme of President Donald Trump’s July 4 speech in Iowa where he touted his signature tax and spending package that contains the majority of his legislative priorities, including a permanent extension of his 2017 tax cuts. The new law is expected to add $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next ten years, cut more than $1 trillion in social spending, and dramatically reduce incentives for clean energy manufacturing and generation.
Passed with Republican-only votes, the legislation drew sharp criticism from across the party: Moderates warned the social spending cuts would harm vulnerable constituents, populists feared a backlash from working-class voters central to Trump’s political base, and fiscal conservatives argued the cuts did not go far enough. Yet in the end, nearly all Republicans rallied behind it — underscoring the president’s enduring dominance over his party.
Polls show that Americans, aside from hardcore MAGA supporters, see relatively little that is “beautiful” about Trump’s bill. Opposition outweighs support by a wide margin (anywhere from 21 to 31 percentage points), which is even greater among independents and Democrats. Almost half of voters (49%, including 54% of independents) believe it will hurt their families, although 23% say it will help. Republicans are split: While 61% like the new law, two-thirds of non-MAGA Republicans view it unfavorably — a relatively small group that could still be critical in close races during next year’s midterm elections.
Both parties believe they have a compelling narrative heading into the mid-terms. Democrats aim to spotlight the law’s regressive tax cuts and deep reductions to social safety net programs, mindful that Republicans lost the House in 2018 after attempting to repeal then-President Obama’s healthcare reform. Republicans, meanwhile, contend that tax cuts and increased border security funding enjoy broad support while other provisions could be framed as efforts to eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse.
Adding unpredictability is Elon Musk’s decision to form a new political party, expected to reflect his strong criticism of Trump’s fiscal approach. Grok, the AI chatbot developed by Musk’s company xAI, suggests that a right-leaning third party could shift tight House or Senate races toward Democrats in 2026 and divide the Republican vote in 2028 — if it can achieve ballot access in key states and secure funding. Despite Tesla’s ongoing challenges, Musk still has the resources to disrupt America’s two-party system, even if his party fails to gain any real power.
President Trump’s signature bill includes roughly $170 billion to fund his immigration and border security agenda for the rest of his term, including $46.5 billion to fortify the U.S.-Mexico border wall, $45 billion to expand a network of detention centers (including one in Florida dubbed Alligator Alcatraz), and $30 billion to hire additional law enforcement staff. This comes at a time when Americans outside Trump’s MAGA base increasingly question his aggressive policies, pushing net approval of what remains the president’s strongest issue into a negative territory (currently at -3 percentage points).
Among Democrats, who shifted right on immigration since 2020, support for Trump’s approach is down 16 points since February. Among independents, the decline is 25 points, and 56% of independents in swing congressional districts say the Trump administration’s hardline tactics are a bridge too far. To be sure, most Republicans back Trump on immigration, including 61% that support large-scale deportations, but 31% favor a pathway to legal status for undocumented immigrants, up 9 points since December 2024.
Americans are concerned that Trump’s immigration policies will weaken the economy (46%) and create additional costs for taxpayers (53%), contributing to a downward trend in the president’s net approval rating on the issue (currently at -13 points). Economists predict a slowdown in industries historically reliant on immigrant labor, especially when an enforcement windfall in Trump’s new law is factored in.
Still, Trump and his party remain ahead of Democrats on immigration, 41% to 34%, and are performing even stronger on border security, a less-partisan issue where the president’s approval stands at 53%, bolstered by a steep decline in illegal border crossings since he took office. But among Democrats, there is a growing will to push back against what they view as the administration’s enforcement overreach while supporting more commonsense measures like deporting immigrants who committed violent crimes. Time will tell whether the party manages to harness popular discontent with Trump’s punitive immigration policies as a central theme in its 2026 midterm strategy — possibly by playing up his disregard for civil rights and the rule of law that could threaten U.S. citizens and noncitizens alike.
Instead of “90 deals in 90 days” White House officials promised after President Trump’s announcement of a steep round of tariffs in April, we are looking at a protracted, disjointed process that may, or may not, gain momentum before the Trump administration’s new deadline, August 1 — which may, or may not, be firm.
As of this writing, the administration is working to finalize loose framework agreements it has reached with the UK, China, and Vietnam. More than 20 other nations, including Japan and South Korea where trade talks have stalled, could be subject to a new tariff of 20% to 40% beginning August 1 if they fail to negotiate in good faith. Brazil could be hit with a 50% duty over its alleged censorship of U.S. social media platforms. Others, like the EU, Canada, and India, seem close to reaching an interim agreement, although possible exemptions for sensitive sectors, such as European autos, spirits, and aircraft, remain to be ironed out. One proposal would allow EU automakers that produce and export cars from the U.S., or make additional investment stateside, to import more of their own vehicles at tariff rates below the current 25%, but no decision on autos (or steel and aluminum that are subject to a 50% tariff) has been made.
Trump’s hardline use of tariffs as leverage, often to secure concessions on issues loosely related to trade, has yielded mixed results. It succeeded in pressuring Canada to abandon its proposed digital services tax targeting major U.S. tech firms, but efforts to push Japan, India, and South Korea into reforming their agricultural policies have stalled negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump’s strategy to isolate China by threatening tariffs on goods rerouted through third countries in Asia is heightening tensions just as both sides begin easing some trade restrictions, including Chinese curbs on rare earth exports and U.S. limits on sales of semiconductor design software, ethane, and aircraft engines. Rising friction with BRICS nations may further solidify their alliance and drive U.S. trading partners toward alternative markets. Yet despite the new deadline, uncertainty persists — both over Trump’s next moves and over how he might define a “deal” when another win is needed to showcase on Truth Social.
