In his first days in office, President Donald Trump declared a state of emergency on America’s southern border and in its energy supply, reversed environmental protections, fired government watchdogs, pulled out (again) of the Paris climate agreement and the World Health Organization, paused foreign aid spending, threatened tariffs on goods from half a dozen countries (not counting the European Union), and announced a $500 billion AI infrastructure project.
It is too early to tell which of Trump’s moves will have a lasting impact, which are purely symbolic, and which will be curtailed or reversed by Congress or the courts. The president’s early actions hew closely to his campaign pledges, and Americans largely expect him to follow through. Notably, the U.S. public appears more in alignment with his America First agenda than at any time during his first term — while remaining profoundly divided on Trump himself, 47% favorable to 48% unfavorable.
Polls show popular support for many of Trump’s signature policies, although not necessarily for his proposed means to carry them out. There is solid backing for strengthening border security, deporting violent criminals, or sending U.S. troops to the southern border, but less so for targeting undocumented immigrants in schools and churches or ending birthright citizenship. There is a clear desire to prioritize domestic issues over global concerns, shared by 60% of Americans, but broad opposition to using coercion to take control of Greenland(68%), Canada (67%), or the Panama Canal (57%).
Support for Trump’s tariff plans is more muted, with less than half in favor, most people expecting prices to rise, and just 37% hopeful that his economic plans would help their personal finances. His decision to pardon participants in the January 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol is unpopular with virtually any demographic, including 24% of Republicans, over concerns that it could incite further violence.
Trump begins his second term on stronger footing than he did in 2017, but most Americans do not view his victory as a clear, broad political mandate and are more likely to think it was a rejection of the unpopular Biden presidency rather than an endorsement of Trump. His early actions as disruptor-in-chief have left some voters unimpressed, pushing his net approval rating down 9 percentage points since inauguration. People want Trump to focus on bringing down consumer costs — the issue that arguably got him elected — instead of imposing tariffs on trading partners or expanding the U.S. territory. Softening consumer confidence and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady for the time being indicate that he may find it challenging to follow through on this all-important promise.
President Trump’s softer tone toward China was one of relatively few surprises of his first week in office. It took Trump until day two to threaten China with a 10% tariff as punishment for sending fentanyl to the U.S. via Mexico and Canada, far below 60% he promised on the campaign trail. Instead, he ordered a broad review of China’s trade practices and another of its compliance with a phase-one trade agreement signed under the first Trump administration — leaving himself a months-long window to negotiate an expanded version of that dealbefore ratcheting up the pressure.
Trump delayed a ban on TikTok for 75 days and suggested that China tariffs could hinge on a deal splitting the ownership of the app between its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, and a U.S. government-owned entity backed by Microsoft, Oracle, Perplexity AI, or another American tech company. He has kept his plans regarding Taiwan deliberately vague after suggesting that it ramp up its defense budget to 10% of GDP or pay the U.S. for protection from Beijing, positioning the issue as a possible bargaining chip in any future China talks.
If personnel is policy, divergent views among senior members of Trump’s China team underscore the president’s transactional, personality-driven approach to the bilateral relationship – in contrast with his predecessor’s framing of it as an ideological contest between democracy and autocracy. Secretary of StateMarco Rubio is a China hardliner twice sanctioned by the Chinese government for his criticism of its human rights record. CIA director John Ratcliffe, another China hawk, believes Covid originated from a Wuhan research lab leak, a theory China strongly rejects. But others, like Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick and Elon Musk, head of the nascent Department of Government Efficiency, may be more inclined to negotiate with China, using tariff policy as leverage (a view shared by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent).
Still, Trump views himself as the ultimate decision maker on China, and it will be up to him to decide whether to pursue an economic deal with Beijing that advances America’s interests or adopt an aggressive decoupling agenda by means of new tariffs, sanctions, or other kinds of economic and political pressure. We will be watching to see whether Trump’s Colombia playbook resonates with Beijing, leading to tangible steps to expand imports or otherwise address China’s record-high trade surplus with the U.S.
Since returning to office, President Trump has taken methodical action to rein in the “green new deal” — his term for former President Biden’s clean energy programs, including those encouraging adoption of zero-emissions vehicles — and eliminate his predecessor’s so-called electric vehicle mandate.
He signed an executive order revoking Biden’s non-binding target of 50% electric vehicle sales by 2030, halted unspent government funds for electric vehicle charging stations, paused new Energy Department grants and loans (presumably including conditional awards to manufacturers under the Inflation Reduction Act), called for ending state emissions waivers (particularly targeting California’s ability to ban internal combustion vehicles by 2035), and directed his administration to consider eliminating clean vehicle subsidies, including the $7,500 federal tax credit for purchases of electric cars.
Trump’s newly confirmed Transportation Secretary, Sean Duffy, has since launched the rollback of Biden-era fuel economy standards for cars and light trucks, while the Environmental Protection Agency, now run by a team of fossil fuels lobbyists, is reassessing its ability to grant California its customary waiver to set more stringent tailpipe emissions limits, last renewed by Biden before leaving office.
These measures are Trump’s known knowns, communicated extensively on the campaign trail and throughout the presidential transition. Then there are his known unknowns, actions that align with his core beliefs and priorities but are difficult to predict in terms of timing, scope, and impact. His administration’s recent order to freeze federal spending in several areas, including climate, targeted billions of dollars in clean vehicle and advanced manufacturing tax credits and grants (including about 16% of clean energy IRA grants not yet obligated) before it was rescinded following confusion and legal challenges. The administration has since indicated that Trump’s intention to freeze spending in those areas remains in effect. We expect any unspent clean energy funding not targeted otherwise to remain vulnerable to cost cutting under Russell Vought, Trump’s nominee to head the White House budget office, an electric vehicle critic who has expressed intentions to defund the EPA. We are on the lookout for additional Trump actions in this space and will keep you informed of further developments.
